YNOT EUROPE – Despite entering a more mature phase in its evolution, online retail in both Western Europe and the U.S. remains poised for a robust period of double-digit growth over the next five years, according to two new forecasts by Forrester Research Inc.

According to Forrester analysts, online retail within the largest European Union nations in Western Europe will slightly outpace that in the U.S., growing at an 11-percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years to reach €114 billion by 2014. U.S. online retail will grow at a 10-percent CAGR over the same period, hitting nearly $249 billion by 2014.

“Much of the overall retail sector’s growth in both the U.S. and the EU over the next five years will come from the internet,” said Forrester Research Vice President and Principal Analyst Sucharita Mulpuru. “To maximize that growth, e-business professionals will have to help enable a multichannel strategy that responds to consumers’ increased desire to hop between the offline and online worlds and their increasing mobile and social behaviors. The retail innovators over the next five years will demonstrate customer enablement across all touchpoints, not just via a PC-based web browser.”

Despite consumers’ increasing use of the web to research products before purchasing, most retailers fall short on offering a seamless cross-channel experience. According to Forrester’s data, while 82 percent of U.S. online consumers are satisfied with buying experiences that began and ended in a store, satisfaction drops to 61 percent for consumers who began their research online and purchased in a store.

The Forrester online retail forecast for the EU includes business-to-consumer sales — excluding auto, travel and prescription drugs — in 17 Western European nations. Country-by-country breakdowns of online retail across the seven largest markets — France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK — are included.

Among Forrester’s predictions:
• Increased online tenure, improved access and greater promotion by retailers will drive the number of online shoppers in Europe from 141 million in 2009 to 190 million by 2014.
• The average spend per online shopper will rise from €483 in 2009 to €601 in 2014.
• Books, event tickets and clothing are the top three categories purchased online in the majority of Western Europe, but shifts in consumer and retailer behavior could shuffle the frontrunners.
• Among the three largest EU markets, online retail will grow at a 10-percent CAGR over the next five years in the UK, 9 percent in Germany and 13 percent in France.

“There is a clear divide between the countries of Northern and Southern Europe regarding online retail adoption,” said Forrester Research Vice President and Research Director Patti Freeman Evans. “While nearly half of UK residents regularly make a purchase online, a mere 10 percent of online Spaniards and 11 percent of online Italians do so today. Still, with compound annual growth rates approaching 20 percent in markets like Spain, emerging European e-commerce markets are poised for a vigorous period of growth.”